4. Peak Oil Politics 101

Let's brainstorm for a bit on the political situation evolving in our post-peak oil world.

Fundamentally, as I wrote in my thesis, after peak oil, we are beginning to move to polar extremes of fascism vs. socialism.

In terms of governments, the United States, being the premier imperialist nation, has little or no choice but to do what it is doing; to use force and violence to threaten the rest of the world from interfering with its dwindling global hegemony and access to oil-rich regions.

The U.S. is in easily the worst shape of any nation with regards to the coming energy collapse. With 5% of the world's population, the country uses 25% of the energy and oil. The immense wealth of the nation is entirely dependent on supply lines that stretch around the world, and rampant poverty inflicted on most of the world's people by their own authoritarian governments (many installed and supported by the U.S., of course). It is hard to imagine how those political-economic relationships could possibly persist when oil shoots to $100 or $200 per barrel. They will become increasingly strained, as third world governments succomb to popular movements demanding economic independence and the end of the raping of their resources and labor for the benefit of the North.

South America is the best example currently. That continent has been dominated by U.S. interests going back to the Monroe Doctrine of the early 19th century. But in the past few years, Venezuela, Brazil, Chile, Argentina, and now Bolivia have moved sharply to the left under socialistic regimes, all with tremendous popular movements urging them forwards. Bolivia is the most striking example, as the nation just elected its first indigenous president, Evo Morales, who moved quickly to nationalize that nation's oil and gas reserves, effectively announcing that the resources of the country must be used for the benefit of its citizens, not the American over-inflated consumer lifestyle. We will see more and more nations breaking free of Washington's grip.

This is the eclipse of the global empire.

The effect on the U.S. economy will certainly be devastating. Not only will cheap goods begin to cease flowing in from the sweatshops of the world, but steadily rising gas prices will prevent the distribution of those goods as is done now, through intercontinental trucking. Moreover, people will no longer be able to afford to drive their 50- or even 100-mile car trips every day, to work, to the mall, to school, and everywhere else.

$10/gallon gas is the death of the American way of life.

Of course, it will be a calamitous adjustment for Americans, who currently live in a hopelessly unsustainable economic and political system. Over 50% of the population now lives in suburbia, which even if people wanted to, could not function with far less energy. Those lawns, large as they are, could not grow enough crops for the families who live in cul-de-sacs.

Meanwhile, the current model of food production, dumping tons of petrochemicals onto increasingly lifeless soil to sprout endless rows of acres of monoculture (think corn), which are then fed to animals in mechanized factory farms, along with extensive petromedicines, to generate meat, will begin to break down more and more. The rural agribusinesses will eventually be forced to close up shop, causing a massive food crisis.

The older cities and boroughs have a chance to survive, but it will still be an incredible adjustment. Mass transit must be encouraged, local organic farming must be encouraged, and just about every system must be made to run on far less energy. Emergency plans must be put in place to deal with gasoline shortages and electricity shortages, and everything must be done to preserve what open farmland still exists, and prevent any new subdivision or strip mall at all costs.

Of course, that is just the beginning, as we move from the most energy-intensive lifestyle in the history of the world, to one which is significantly more modest. There are a plethora of desperate measures which will have to be taken, but in reality, every town will face its own unique crisis.

Often those from the peak oil-aware population commit a senseless error in prophesizing that the end of the oil-dependent American way of life must be the end of the world, or the end of civilization, etc. The only way that's true is if the U.S. decides to start World War III and launch a few thousand nukes at its enemies.

More likely, paths will diverge, and each section of the globe will face a far different future.

For example, take Cuba, with it's unique emphasis on organic farming and low-energy economics since the collapse of the Soviet Union and "The Special Period." Having gone through one petrocollapse already, Cuba is uniquely prepared for another. That doesn't mean the island will have it easy, as they have become increasingly dependent on global tourism, an industry that will be among the first to go in the global economic collapse. Still, with 50% of the produce eaten by Havana's citizens coming from within the city, and many other Cuban cities at 50-100%+, the kind of apocalyptic doomsaying being thrown around in the U.S. really does not apply in Cuba.

Of course, the only reason Cuba survived their first petrocollapse was because they have a socialist government, which ensures the health, employment, and general well-being of every citizen. The government controls the nation's economy, being able to shift resources to farming and mass transit, and sacrifice other less fundamental areas, which is something that capitalist governments cannot do. That is especially true because in Cuba, the media is controlled by the government as well (which is nonideal for other reasons), which gives an enormous advantage to Cuba over nations where corporations own and run the media. Corporate media cannot mobilize the public to take grassroots action to reclaim their lives and their economic circumstances, in fact it must always do the opposite: encourage individualism, cynicism and inaction. Capitalist governments, serving those corporate interests, will not be able to create sustainable, longterm solutions to the oil crisis, because it is not profitable to move the suburban population to rural areas and teach everyone to farm. Nor is it profitable to completely revamp the national transportation system, and revive rail transport over car transport. Nor is it profitable to provide universal health care and employment.

Moreover, all this must be done in a crisis situation, and as we know, capitalist governments do not act with rational or humane intentions during crises and disasters (think Katrina).

Only those nations with socialistic political structures, which control the means of production for the benefit of the public, or at least with revolutionary environments to create those structures, will be able to prevent rampant disease, starvation, and economic collapse.

In nations with capitalist governments, or other repressive authoritarian regimes, the only solution is revolution.

Of course, it must begin from the bottom. The grassroots must lead the way, and the more democratic the revolutionary organization, the more capable it will be of responding to the myriad of unforeseen dilemmas which will arise during the coming crisis.

Is this just political opportunism? No, quite the contrary. While "veterans" will surely be involved in the struggle, the revolution will be fought for, and by, average citizens, who today have no idea what they will soon be involved in.

Why will they fight? Food, land, and work.

It is that simple. Take any capitalist nation as an example. When gas costs $10/gallon, unemployment shoots up, inflation reaches record levels, and current systems begin to expunge the lower classes from receiving their services en masse. What recourse will exist for these desperate millions? Will private charity save them, when corporate competition is only accelerating? Will hospitals and food banks volunteer their services, at a time when bankruptcies are snowballing? Will government decide to provide massive reallocation of resources for a politically disenfranchised group? Certainly not enough.

The only way to prevent inhuman absurdities, such as hundreds of billions of dollars for military and weapons, or trillions of dollars in advertising and marketing urging deadend consumerism, the big-screen TVs, the oversized SUVs, the video and computer games mesmerizing youth, the cell phones, the McMansions, the endless seas of soft drinks and fast food hamburgers, and acres upon acres of totally unnecessary parking lots and highways, while millions cannot even get bread, or work, or any basic necessities, is revolutionary action to topple the capitalist system and create something humane.

Next time, I'll explain why it will succeed.